TRPI // TIBO RESET PROBABILITY INDEX

Unofficial predictive model · Not affiliated with OpenAI

LIVE · Nov 14, 11:46 ET

Current TRPI

33%

WATCHING

DATA CONFIDENCE 75%

Z = -0.707 · σ(Z) · reading Nov 14, 11:02 ET

Reading timestamp

Nov 14, 11:02 ET

Trigger: tick

Days since last reset

1.7 days

banked reset · Nov 13, 2026

Latest Tibo signal

Nov 12, 21:09 ET

How can codex be improved? Try not to say model.

Latest competitor release

Google Gemini 4 Hydrogen

Nov 12, 2026

Strongest positive

B · Burn Pressure

+1.62 to Z

Strongest negative

W · Weekend Penalty

-0.60 to Z

Variable telemetry

TRPI = 100 × σ(Σ weight × value − baseline)

Reset Drought

D 0.08

CONFIRMED

Weight +1.4

Contribution +0.11

1.7 days since banked reset on 2026-11-13 / 21

Burn Pressure

B 0.90

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.8

Contribution +1.62

Users across multiple plans report rapid, unexplained depletion of weekly allowances, with numerous GitHub issues documenting quota exhaustion within 24 hours of usage.

Economic Pain

E 0.70

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.1

Contribution +0.77

Subscribers are expressing frustration over perceived poor value, specifically citing disproportionate pricing for Pro 200 tiers in the UK and high costs relative to usage.

Competition

C 0.25

CONFIRMED

Weight +1.3

Contribution +0.32

Anthropic Claude Mythos 5.2: quality 0.66 × efficiency 0.56 × freshness 0.67 (5.7d)

Churn Pressure

H 0.60

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.2

Contribution +0.72

Sentiment is increasingly negative due to the long drought between global resets and the rapid consumption of credits, leading to comparisons with competitors.

Adoption

A 0.50

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.9

Contribution +0.45

Community interest remains high with active development and feature requests, though growth is tempered by ongoing frustration with rate limits.

Social Pressure

S 0.90

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.8

Contribution +0.72

High volume of social media and GitHub activity focused on the 'reset drought' and the recent November 12 banked reset announcement.

SRC https://codexreset.ai/

UPD Nov 14, 11:01 ET

Tuesday Factor

T 0.20

CONFIRMED

Weight +1

Contribution +0.20

Saturday coefficient

SRC Calendar

UPD Nov 14, 11:02 ET

Rage Velocity

R 0.23

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.7

Contribution +0.16

15 complaints/24h vs 22/day avg (ratio 0.68 / 3). Rage velocity remains elevated as users continue to flood GitHub and Reddit with complaints regarding quota depletion and capacity errors.

Tibo Tease Factor

TTF 0.79

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.4

Contribution +1.10

13 weighted signal(s). Strongest: "We shipped some good updates to dots today and the banked reset has been activated and sho"

Launch Suspicion

L 0.40

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.8

Contribution +0.32

Speculation persists regarding new model releases (GPT-6 Astra/Terra) following hints from OpenAI staff, though no official launch date is confirmed.

SRC https://codexreset.ai/signals/

UPD Nov 14, 11:01 ET

Infrastructure

I 0.50

CONFIRMED

Weight -1.2

Contribution -0.60

Partial System Degradation · Compliance API: degraded_performance

SRC https://status.openai.com

UPD Nov 14, 11:01 ET

Weekend Penalty

W 1.00

CONFIRMED

Weight -0.6

Contribution -0.60

Saturday 11:00 America/New_York

SRC Calendar

UPD Nov 14, 11:02 ET

TRPI probability vs date

Codex resetTibo announcementOpenAI releaseCompetitor release
Oct 29Nov 5Nov 140255075100
TRPI is an unofficial, humorous predictive model built from public signals. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or informed by OpenAI or Tibo Sottiaux. Data marked ESTIMATED or UNAVAILABLE is exactly that.