TRPI // TIBO RESET PROBABILITY INDEX

Unofficial predictive model · Not affiliated with OpenAI

LIVE · Nov 14, 10:23 ET

Current TRPI

40%

WATCHING

DATA CONFIDENCE 75%

Z = -0.408 · σ(Z) · reading Nov 14, 10:03 ET

Reading timestamp

Nov 14, 10:03 ET

Trigger: tick

Days since last reset

1.6 days

banked reset · Nov 13, 2026

Latest Tibo signal

Nov 12, 21:09 ET

How can codex be improved? Try not to say model.

Latest competitor release

Google Gemini 4 Hydrogen

Nov 12, 2026

Strongest positive

B · Burn Pressure

+1.62 to Z

Strongest negative

W · Weekend Penalty

-0.60 to Z

Variable telemetry

TRPI = 100 × σ(Σ weight × value − baseline)

Reset Drought

D 0.08

CONFIRMED

Weight +1.4

Contribution +0.11

1.6 days since banked reset on 2026-11-13 / 21

Burn Pressure

B 0.90

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.8

Contribution +1.62

Users across multiple plans report rapid, unexplained depletion of weekly and banked quotas, with numerous GitHub issues documenting exhaustion within hours of use.

Economic Pain

E 0.80

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.1

Contribution +0.88

Subscribers are expressing frustration over the perceived lack of value for $200 Pro plans and are actively seeking refunds or migrating to competitors like Claude due to performance drops.

Competition

C 0.25

CONFIRMED

Weight +1.3

Contribution +0.32

Anthropic Claude Mythos 5.2: quality 0.66 × efficiency 0.56 × freshness 0.67 (5.6d)

Churn Pressure

H 0.70

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.2

Contribution +0.84

Sentiment is increasingly negative, with users discussing switching to Claude or Gemini and questioning the worth of paid subscriptions given current reliability issues.

Adoption

A 0.40

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.9

Contribution +0.36

While community activity remains high, growth is tempered by widespread complaints about usability and the lack of consistent reset schedules.

Social Pressure

S 0.90

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.8

Contribution +0.72

High volume of social media and tracker activity regarding the 'reset drought' and anticipation of Tibo's next announcement.

SRC https://aiidelist.com/codex-reset

UPD Nov 14, 10:03 ET

Tuesday Factor

T 0.20

CONFIRMED

Weight +1

Contribution +0.20

Saturday coefficient

SRC Calendar

UPD Nov 14, 10:03 ET

Rage Velocity

R 0.23

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.7

Contribution +0.16

15 complaints/24h vs 22/day avg (ratio 0.68 / 3). Rage velocity remains high, driven by persistent quota depletion bugs and service instability reported on GitHub and Reddit.

Tibo Tease Factor

TTF 0.79

ESTIMATED

Weight +1.4

Contribution +1.10

13 weighted signal(s). Strongest: "We shipped some good updates to dots today and the banked reset has been activated and sho"

Launch Suspicion

L 0.60

ESTIMATED

Weight +0.8

Contribution +0.48

Speculation is high regarding a new model or reset following Tibo's 'codexy' hint and the introduction of new 'Daybreak' credits in the desktop app.

Infrastructure

I 0.50

CONFIRMED

Weight -1.2

Contribution -0.60

Partial System Degradation · Compliance API: degraded_performance

SRC https://status.openai.com

UPD Nov 14, 10:03 ET

Weekend Penalty

W 1.00

CONFIRMED

Weight -0.6

Contribution -0.60

Saturday 10:00 America/New_York

SRC Calendar

UPD Nov 14, 10:03 ET

TRPI probability vs date

Codex resetTibo announcementOpenAI releaseCompetitor release
Oct 29Nov 5Nov 140255075100
TRPI is an unofficial, humorous predictive model built from public signals. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or informed by OpenAI or Tibo Sottiaux. Data marked ESTIMATED or UNAVAILABLE is exactly that.